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High interest rates squeeze companies of all sizes, but that’s especially the case for smaller firms, unlike large companies better equipped to weather the storm. Before the Bell: How do the effects of higher-for-longer interest rates on companies vary by size? I think it might be a stretch to say that M&A activity picks up because of higher interest rates, so instead, it’s that if good businesses are beginning to suffer because of higher interest rates, then they might be more likely to be a target. Gas prices always rise as winter winds down because demand increases and gas stations must switch over to more expensive summer fuel. No matter the cause, rising gas prices are bad news for consumers already frustrated by the cost of living.
Persons: It’s, Bell, Lauren Goodwin, Matt Egan, , Patrick De Haan, doesn’t, ” Read, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, AAA, , HSBC, Walmart, Home Depot, Barclays, Caesars Entertainment, Nvidia, Rivian, Fidelity, Marriott, Intuit, Pacific Gas & Electric, Global, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Warner Bros ., Icahn Enterprises Locations: Washington, Wingstop, United States
If productivity is strong, that means the US economy is doing more with less, or being more productive. Productivity is measured by dividing all the goods and services produced in the economy by every hour people worked. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”Last year’s productivity boom could also be a combination of all of the above. Still, it may be too soon to know if last year’s productivity burst was truly a transformative shift in the US economy. “Sometimes at the very end of an economic cycle, productivity can be boosted by cost-saving measures,” Goodwin of New York Life Investments said.
Persons: ” Lauren Goodwin, Mark Zandi, John Min, Austan Goolsbee, It’s, ” Min, ” Goodwin, Organizations: DC CNN, Labor Department, New York Life Investments, CNN, Microsoft, Meta, Citigroup, Monex, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Washington
Mortgage rates rise for the second week, reaching 6.77%
  + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —After treading water for months, US mortgage rates jumped higher Thursday following a string of strong employment and inflation reports. “On the heels of consumer prices rising more than expected, mortgage rates increased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The addition of needed inventory and the prospect of lower mortgage rates this year may spur buyers to jump into the market. “This spring, buyers are likely to see lower mortgage rates than in the fall of 2023, which may mean more eager buyers in the market,” Jones said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Bob Broeksmit, Broeksmit, Jerome Powell, Hanna Jones, who’ve, Lisa Sturtevant, Jones, Alicia Huey, ” Jones Organizations: DC CNN, , Mortgage Bankers Association, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders Locations: Washington,
Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers tumbled much more than expected in January as cold weather across the United States kept shoppers at home after a robust holiday spending season. Retail sales, which captures spending on all goods and food services, fell 0.8% in January, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, breaking a two-month streak of increases. Spending declined across various categories last month, including at gas stations and home improvement stores, likely due to the cold weather, falling 1.7% and 4.1%, respectively. January’s Arctic chill also reversed course later in the month in some parts of the country and it’s possible that retail spending could come roaring back in February. “The Fed is likely to look through one month’s weak retail sales report, especially since there is an obvious explanation from a clearly temporary issue,” he said.
Persons: it’s, Bill Adams, , Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Comerica Bank Locations: Washington, United States
Washington, DC CNN —Home insurance policies as well as additional earthquake, fire and flood coverage are becoming more expensive and, in some places, harder to find. We would like to hear about your recent experience finding, keeping or affording a home insurance policy or additional risk-specific coverage. Have you struggled to find or afford insurance for your home? Have you seen a spike in your insurance premium? Have you walked away from buying a home because the cost of insurance was too much?
Organizations: DC CNN — Locations: Washington
Washington, DC CNN —The storms pummeling California this week hit a part of the US already being battered by a home insurance crisis. With insurers strained by climate change and inflation, many are demanding higher premiums, making it much harder to find affordable (or any) home and fire insurance. But it is not just California; homeowners in other areas prone to weather events like Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are also facing challenges. Meanwhile, in hurricane-battered Florida, Farmers Insurance deemed it too risky to continue insuring homes and pulled out of that market entirely. “This isn’t just climate change, it is climate-change-plus,” Bach said.
Persons: , Amy Bach, United, Michael Monaghan, Sellers, you’ve, Jennifer Branchini, Bach, Hurricane Andrew, ” Bach, mitigations Organizations: DC CNN, Allstate, Farmers Insurance, Coldwell, California Association of Realtors, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Hurricane, FAIR, California Department of Insurance Locations: Washington, California, Florida , Louisiana, Texas, San Francisco, California’s, Golden State, Florida, Vermont, Colorado, Pleasanton, United, “ Florida, Louisiana
In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA
Washington, DC CNN —Americans are living through the toughest housing market in a generation and, for some young people, the quintessential dream of owning a home is slipping away. Mortgage rates surged in recent years, hitting the highest levels in more than two decades last fall. CNN spoke with some young Americans about their thoughts on the current state of the US housing market and their plans for the future. “The housing market is not a single person’s market.”What typically happens when a regional housing market becomes too unaffordable is that people without the means simply move somewhere cheaper, such as a suburb an hour away, for example. Still, affordability takes into account mortgage rates, family incomes and single-family home prices, which remain a vexing pain point.
Persons: It’s, Baby, Brandie Grant, Grant, , , ” Brandie Grant, Brandie, Ross, Emily Bunton, Ross Bunton, That’s, ” Bunton, I’m, Corey Griffis, , hasn’t, ” Griffis, Shyahm Aguilar, Shyahm Aguilar Shyahm Aguilar, Aguilar, we’ve, ” Aguilar, that’s, there’s, Fannie Mae’s, ” Mark Palim, Fannie Mae, Mario Tama, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s, Sofiya Vyshnevska, Vyshnevska, “ Young Organizations: DC CNN, Baby Boomers, CNN, San Francisco Bay Area, National Association of Realtors, Housing Administration, Montana State University, Federal, Housing Survey, , NAR Locations: Washington, San Francisco Bay, United States, St, Louis , Missouri, Portland , Oregon, Mexico, Santa Fe , New Mexico, Santa Fe, Merida, Colorado, Phoenix, Queen Creek , Arizona, Minneapolis, Houston, Dallas, Austin , Texas, Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, Florida, Atlanta
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
That’s the Fed’s latest attempt at giving Wall Street a reality check on rate cuts. Fed officials have been communicating that sentiment for weeks now, and Wednesday’s statement is yet another signal from the Fed that investors need to rethink their bets. In early January, futures showed that rate cuts were very likely going to happen in March, but those odds have since crumbled, and they may continue to dip. There are consequences if the Fed cuts rates too soon and if it cuts too late. Fed officials have said they likely need to see “below-trend growth” to be assured that inflation is on its way to 2%.
Persons: Price, , , Jerome Powell, Subadra Rajappa, Générale Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, Fed Locations: Washington
The median asking rent was $1,713, which was down $4 from November and down $63 from the July 2022 peak. However, median rent is still $309 higher than the same time in 2019, before the pandemic. What’s more, 12 million of those renters are severely cost burdened, which means they are paying more than half of their income on housing. Following changes in housing needs during the pandemic and an already existing low supply of multifamily housing in some markets, rents surged in 2021 and 2022. Without continued new supply in addition to enhanced rental support, the Harvard report concludes affordability will remain a critical concern for many renters.
Persons: Chris Herbert, , Whitney Airgood, Douglas Elliman, Miller Samuel Real, , Anthemos Georgiades, ” Georgiades Organizations: DC CNN, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard, Census Bureau, Builders, National Association of Home Builders, Baby Boomers Locations: Washington, United States, Manhattan
Many Boomers whose homes have surged in value now face massive capital gains tax bills when they sell. Plus, smaller homes or apartments in the neighborhoods they’ve come to love are rare. Taxes on capital gains drain profits from a saleFederal and possibly state capital gains taxes can be significant for long-time homeowners who have seen their property values soar over several decades. They paid the capital gains and moved because their home was isolated and they wanted to be closer to conveniences, health care and other people as they aged. Few smaller homes in areas they’ve long livedMany neighborhoods where older homeowners have long lived are zoned for single-family homes and have few smaller homes or multi-family properties like condos or rental buildings.
Persons: Baby Boomers Marta, Octavian Dragos, , Dragos, ” Dragos, , they’ve, , Peter Poulsen, Poulsen, Jimmy Panetta Organizations: DC CNN, Savings Locations: Washington, El Cerrito , California, California, Livermore , California
Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.
Persons: that’s, , Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, , ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron
Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.
Persons: , Christopher Waller, , who’ve, Loretta Mester, , Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, , JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States
Washington, DC CNN —The residential real estate market tumbled in 2023, as soaring interest rates steadily slowed sales activity — but home prices still hit a record high. Even with all the disruptions of the onset of the pandemic, sales in 2020 ended at about 5.5 million. The next year, sales soared to over 6 million amid the frenzied market as mortgage rates sank in 2021. As mortgage rates hit 7.79% in October 2023, the highest in 23 years, sales sank again, to about 4 million. If there had been more listings on the market in 2023, we would have had more home sales.”
Persons: Lawrence Yun, , Yun, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Realtors, , , Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, homeownership,
Washington, DC CNN —Americans’ attitudes on the economy are improving substantially as inflation slows. The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey showed that sentiment improved greatly this month, soaring 13% from December, according to a preliminary reading released Friday. The university’s latest survey showed that US consumers’ expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead and over the next five years also improved. Americans still have some concernsWhile Friday’s survey showed that consumers are feeling some much needed relief, there are still lots of pain points for many Americans. In addition to high prices, Americans continue to grapple with an impenetrable housing market, persistent income inequality, and rising debt, prompting some to think that the so-called “American Dream” is broken.
Persons: ” Joanne Hsu Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan’s Locations: Washington
Mortgage rates drop to lowest level since May
  + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington, DC CNN —After moving higher the past two weeks, mortgage rates fell this week, dropping to the their lowest level since May 2023. Mortgage rates remain more than a full percentage point lower than their highest levels of last year: 7.79%. However, he added, as more buyers come in off the sidelines attracted by lower rates, more pressure will be placed on already depleted inventory for sale. “In some markets, however, prices will rise much faster this year.”Still, lower rates can improve affordability by reducing the costs of financing a home. “On a loan to purchase a $400,000 home, a one percentage point decrease in mortgage rates can lead to a $250 drop in the typical monthly payment,” Sturtevant said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, who’ve, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Lisa Sturtevant, Sturtevant, ” Sturtevant Organizations: DC CNN, , homebuyers Locations: Washington, DC
Washington, DC CNN —Americans are living through one of the toughest housing markets in recent memory. Home prices are rising faster than wages, mortgage rates are still hovering near 23-year highs and many Boomers across the country are refusing to sell their homes. The National Association of Realtors’ affordability index — which takes into account mortgage rates, family incomes and home prices — has been hovering near decades-lows. Homeownership is arguably a key part of the so-called American Dream, but for young people, it might be just that — a dream. We’d like to know how Americans younger than 31 are planning for their future given that it has become so unaffordable to own a home nowadays.
Organizations: DC CNN, Boomers, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington
US retail sales rose at a faster pace in December
  + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
Spending at US retailers rose 0.6% in December from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. That was a faster pace than November’s 0.3% gain, also beating economists’ expectations. Retail sales are adjusted for seasonal swings, but not inflation. Sales at department stores jumped 3% in December, the most of any category. Spending at car dealerships, clothing stores and online also increased at a solid pace last month.
Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department Locations: Washington
Washington, DC CNN —Homebuilder confidence surged in January as mortgage rates continued to trend lower, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Wednesday. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes surpassed market expectations, climbing seven points to 44 on the index. The optimism comes as mortgage rates begin to fall and data points to an improving economy heading into 2024. “Single-family starts are expected to grow in 2024, adding much needed inventory to the market,” Huey said. The monthly builder index looks at current sales, buyer traffic and the outlook for sales of new-construction homes over the next six months.
Persons: Alicia Huey, ” Huey, Freddie Mac Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Home Builders Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo
As a result, empty-nest Baby Boomers own 28% of large homes — and Milliennials with kids own just 14%, according to a Redfin analysis released Tuesday. Ten years ago young families were just as likely as empty nesters to own large homes. But even then empty nest Baby Boomers had the most large homes. Where Millennials own the most larger homesYoung families take up the smallest share of large homes in coastal areas like California and Florida, where large homes tend to be more expensive. Empty nesters own at least 20% of large homes everywhere in the country.
Persons: Baby, Gen, , Sheharyar Bokhari, Zers, Millennials, Gen Xers, , Boomers Organizations: DC CNN, Baby Boomers, Boomers, CNN, ICE Mortgage Technology Locations: Washington, doesn’t, U.S, California, Florida, Midwest, Riverside , California, Salt Lake City, Austin , Texas
The biggest risks US businesses face in 2024
  + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
But, while businesses have plenty to be grateful for and much to be optimistic about, the coast isn’t clear. Last week, surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and The Conference Board detailed the biggest risks that businesses are currently worried about. Here are some of the biggest risks for American businesses in 2024. Those financial stresses can reduce the willingness of banks to lend to others businesses and also to consumers,” she said. Bank earnings look really bad this quarter.
Persons: there’s, , John Maynard Keynes, , ” Dana Peterson, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Peterson, ” Suzanne Clark, We’re, Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Fitch, Clark, JPMorgan Chase, Nicole Goodkind, Krystal Hur, FactSet, Martin Luther King Jr, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, US, of Commerce, of American, Conference Board, Conference, CNN, Fed, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, chamber’s State of American, AAA, Moody’s Investors Service, US Chamber, Commerce’s, Google, Citigroup, Bank, JPMorgan, FactSet, Revenue, Profit, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Bank of America, FDIC, Citi, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Alcoa, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, Wells, Corporate America, chamber’s State, BlackRock, Amazon, Argentina, Japan
Experts in housing, building, and urban planning say it may be difficult to convert office space to livable, likeable residential housing, but there’s an urgent reason they’re trying. More office space is sitting empty in the United States than at any point since 1979, Moody’s Analytics reported earlier this week. By some estimates, only 3% of New York City office buildings and 2% in downtown Denver are suited for residential conversions. Office space and homes are two fundamentally different types of buildings, according to builders and architects. Do you have another building where you can move them?”As result, according to Theodos, office conversions are not a solution to either the empty office glut or the housing supply shortage.
Persons: Biden, , Harold Bordwin, Keen, Brett Theodos, ” Bordwin, , ” Maren Reepmeyer, ” Theodos, , Nathaniel Meyersohn, Donald Judd Organizations: DC CNN, Moody’s, National Association of Realtors, Summit Capital Partners, Metropolitan Housing, Policy Center, Urban Institute, , CBRE, Wacker, Chicago Business Locations: Washington, New York, Boston, Cleveland, United States, Manhattan, , New York City, Denver, Chicago, Theodos
Washington, DC CNN —Renters and homeowners experience inflation differently; and right now, renters are taking a much more painful hit. While shelter inflation has come down over the past few months, in December, the shelter index was still 6.2% higher year over year. Inflation divide between renters and homeownersTwo things are driving the divide between how homeowners and renters experience inflation. And 64% of homeowners have a mortgage rate of 4% or lower — more than two and a half percentage points lower than prevailing rates. Even if the typical mortgage payment is higher than a typical monthly rent payment, renters’ incomes tend to be lower than homeowners.
Persons: , Lisa Sturtevant, Danielle Hale, Realtor.com, , Hale Organizations: DC CNN, Bright MLS, Bank of America Institute, BLS, Locations: Washington
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates ticked up this week for the second week in a row, but remain more than a full percentage point lower than their high last year. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% in the week ending January 11, up from 6.62% the previous week, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Lower mortgage rates expected to bring new inventoryWhile mortgage rates trending lower is welcome news for homebuyers, those in the market are still dealing with the double whammy of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise. But, she added, the pace of mortgage rates declining is likely to be slower going forward than the dramatic nine-week drop at the end of 2023.
Persons: Freddie Mac, who’ve, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, That’s, Jiayi Xu, Xu Organizations: DC CNN —, , Federal, Treasury Locations: Washington
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